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02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A key battle in the Western Conference playoff race is on tap tonight in Denver, as the sliding Colorado Avalanche host the Minnesota Wild at the Pepsi Center.
Despite posting just four wins in their last 20 games (4-12-4), the Wild enter tonight holding onto the eighth and final postseason berth in the West with 55 points. Colorado, which has been dealt three straight regulation losses, is just one point behind the Wild in both the conference and Northwest Division standings. The Avs are also tied with Dallas for the conference's ninth seed.
The Avalanche have dropped each of their last three trips to the ice by identical 3-2 scores and the latest setback came Tuesday night in Edmonton. Taylor Hall notched the game-winner early in the third period for the Oilers, as Colorado lost its first game following the All-Star break.
Peter Mueller and Gabriel Landeskog scored for the Avalanche, while Semyon Varlamov stopped 20-of-23 shots to drop his record to 14-16-1 on the season.
"It got better as the game went on; but I guess it was too little, too late," Landeskog said of the Avs, who trailed by a 2-0 score after the first period.
Jean-Sebastien Giguere is expected to get the start in net tonight and the veteran netminder has been far superior to Varlamov this season. Giguere is 12-8-1 with a 2.15 goals-against average and .921 save percentage this year compared to Varlamov's 3.00 GAA and .898 save percentage.
Giguere is 9-11-3 with two ties in his career against Minnesota and he dropped a 3-2 decision to the visiting Wild in Colorado's final game before the break on Jan. 24.
The Wild have taken two of three from Colorado this year and have won five of six overall in the series. Minnesota has also claimed three straight and six of its last seven in the Mile High City.
Tonight marks the start of a four-game homestand for the Avs, who are 14-12-0 as the host this year. Minnesota is beginning a three-game road trip this evening and is 11-12-4 as the guest.
Minnesota scored the first three goals Tuesday against visiting Nashville, but still wound up losing a 5-4 regulation decision. The Wild also held a 4-1 lead early in the third period, but the Predators scored four unanswered and Mike Fisher won it for Nashville with just 21 seconds left in regulation.
With 20.8 seconds left in regulation, Fisher grabbed an errant pass near the boards by the right circle and flicked a shot towards the net that slipped through Josh Harding's pads for the game-winner.
"It was an awful goal, probably one of the worst I've given up in my life," said Harding. "No excuses. That one's on me."
Harding stopped 25-of-30 shots in the loss, while Dany Heatley led the offense with two goals and an assist. Cal Clutterbuck and Kyle Brodziak also netted goals for Minnesota.
On the injury front, star forward Matt Duchene (knee) is out indefinitely for Colorado. Minnesota captain Mikko Koivu is still sidelined with a separated shoulder, but is nearing a return, as is fellow forward Guillaume Latendresse, who has been out with a concussion since Dec. 14. Koivu has missed the last five games after injuring his left shoulder in St. Louis on Jan. 14.
<< Fernandez-Castano takes lead in Qatar
Doha, Qatar (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano shot a six-under 66
on a windy Thursday to take the first-round lead at the Qatar Masters.
The Spaniard birdied four of his final five holes at Doha Golf Club to take a
one-shot le
<< Blazers crush Bobcats
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - While they haven't been at their best on the
road, the Portland Trail Blazers have had almost no trouble winning at the
Rose Garden.
Jamal Crawford scored 24 points while Gerald Wallace netted 23 points
<< Clippers earn rare win in Utah
Salt Lake City, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't easy, but the Clippers picked
up their first win in Salt Lake City since 2003.
Los Angeles had lost 15 straight against the Jazz in Utah, but got a season-
high 34 points and 11 assists fr
<< Doughty scores in final second as Kings down Jackets
Los Angeles, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Drew Doughty rammed home the game-winning
goal with two-tenths of a second remaining to send the Los Angeles Kings to a
3-2 victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets at Staples Center.
After Blue Jackets'
Sharks, Stars renew hostilities in San Jose >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Jose Sharks turned in an impressive performance in
their first game following the All-Star break and the Pacific Division leaders
will aim for a third straight win tonight when they host the rival Dallas
Stars at HP P
Blazers visit reeling Kings >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Sacramento Kings will attempt to halt a five-
game losing streak when they entertain a Portland Trail Blazers club trying to
figure out how to get it done away from Rip City.
The Kings were competitive in their
Improved Clippers aim for another win over Nuggets >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Los Angeles Clippers seem to grow more imposing by the
day and will aim get the best of Denver for the second time in less than a
week when the two teams square off at Staples Center.
The Pacific Division-leading Clips
Bruins try to solve visiting Hurricanes >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Try as they may, the Boston Bruins haven't been able to
solve the Carolina Hurricanes this season. They'll get one more chance tonight
as the two teams clash in Boston.
The Bruins and Hurricanes sit at opposite ends of the
The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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