CFL West: Eskimos fire GM; Rambo sparks Calgary offense

Football Betting Lines

08/05/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It didn't matter that Edmonton won its first game of the season, prevailing in a tight 28-25 affair over west rival BC Lions. The triumph wasn't enough for a team that was off to its worst start since 1965, and Danny Maciocia still lost his job as general manger of the Eskimos.

As tumultuous a season as it has been in Edmonton, the storyline doesn't compare to the long-awaited return of dynamic receiver Ken-Yon Rambo to the Calgary Stampeders. The former all-star returned from an injury that sidelined him for most of the 2009 season, putting together a great first game with 86 yards and a touchdown catch. The Stamps' fight for first place in the west was matched by another Saskatchewan win, and the teams share the same record at 4-1. It's now almost officially a two-horse race in the west.

CALGARY STAMPEDERS

A 23-20 score was closer than it should have been as the Stamps came out strong against Winnipeg and certainly deserved to win.

It didn't take long for Rambo to make an impact, catching a 20-yard touchdown pass less than five minutes into the game.

Henry Burris had his most flawless game of the season, passing for 340 yards and two touchdowns and, best of all, no interceptions. The offense may have sputtered in the second half, scoring just six points off two field goals, but the defense more than made up for it.

Including its game versus Saskatchewan in Week 4, Calgary has now held two good offensive teams in a row to just 20 points. If trouble comes in threes, then the rest of the league best beware: A healthy receiving corps, an errorless Burris, and a fortified defense are strong ingredients for a legitimate Grey Cup contender in Calgary.

Offensive key to the next game: Calgary rides into BC for a date with the Lions this week riding a wave of positive momentum. The Lions have been struggling mightily on offense, but defense is a different story. BC has allowed the second-fewest points in the league this season behind the Montreal Alouettes, and in order for the Stamps to break the wall, they'll need Burris to hit his targets early and often. Whether Rambo can make improvements on his season debut remains to be seen, but in the meantime, Burris can rely on veteran receiver Nik Lewis to carry the load.

Defensive key to the game: How about stand still and wait for Travis Lulay to throw away the ball? BC has yet to find its footing offensively and fill-in quarterback Lulay struggled to make a positive impact in Week 5. The 27-year- old has tossed four interceptions in two starts this season.

Look ahead: Calgary has the best schedule in the league for the next few weeks. After a test with the offensively-challenged BC Lions, Calgary hosts the Eskimos in what could be a one-sided battle of Alberta. A bye the following week leaves Calgary with the best chance to go a commanding 6-1 in the standings.

SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS

No team desires for its kicker to have to carry the offense, but when you put up 37 points and win by 13 despite a struggling quarterback, it's hard to voice your complaints.

Luca Congi was a perfect 7-for-7 on his field goal attempts, picking up on his QB's failed attempts to get into the end zone.

Darian Durant failed to dazzle in front of his home crowd at Mosaic Field, passing for 270 yards and an interception, but got close enough on dives for Congi to take over.

Perhaps more worrisome is the defense that allowed Hamilton's Arland Bruce to catch for 272 yards on 16 receptions. No receiver should be allowed that much space and considering all the weapons of their next opponent, the Montreal Alouettes, the Roughriders would do well to tighten up in the backfield.

Offensive key to the next game: The Roughriders clawed their way back to win one of the best season-opening game in Canadian football history against the Montreal Alouettes in Week 1. Putting up 54 points again is highly unlikely, but there's no doubt that this game will boil down to which quarterback dishes the most damage. Durant needs to shine again, but Wes Cates' versatility as a running back who can also catch, may prove to be an important cog in what would be an impressive road victory.

Defensive key to the game: Stopping Calvillo is perhaps the most cliched defensive strategy in CFL history, but Saskatchewan can't forget about Avon Cobourne. The running back has picked up his game incredibly over the past couple weeks, so look for the Alouettes to exploit his talent once again to offset the deep receiving corps. The defensive line will have the most important task of the night blocking Cobourne's lanes and putting pressure on Montreal's wily QB.

BC Lions

At least they have good defense.

The Lions have looked more like house cats with the ball this season and it doesn't look like a turnaround is in the cards anytime soon. Given some of their talented receivers - Geroy Simon, Paris Jackson - and a more-than-capable running back in Jamal Roberston, the Lions should be able to muster better than 100 total points over five games.

Lulay is a work in progress and has shown signs of talent, but BC better hope Lulay finds his game quickly because a meeting with Calgary in Week 6 may be a disaster, even if it is a home game.

Offensive key to the next game: Get the receivers involved. Geroy Simon led the entire team in receptions with four catches for 40 yards in Week 5. That won't win any football games, despite a stellar Lions defense that almost stole the game against Edmonton.

Defensive key to the next game: Force Burris to make mistakes, and keep the Stampeders out of field goal range. The Lions defense has the ability to really frustrate Burris, and if BC can be consistent and cut off long, momentum- shifting drives, keeping competitive is at least possible.

Look ahead: The bye week is just two weeks away and it couldn't be more welcome for the limping Lions. After facing Calgary, they head out to Regina and CFL's toughest crowds to take on the Roughriders. A win there is not in the Lions' favor, making this week's home tilt against the Stampeders all the more necessary to make a run at the top teams in the west.

EDMONTON ESKIMOS

It must feel great for Edmonton to finally get its first win, but a lot of work is still to be done.

Getting the team on the field to focus will be tough following the departure of their GM Maciocia and a head coach, Richie Hall, walking the tightest of ropes to get his team back on track.

Coming back from behind in the fourth quarter against the Lions is a great start, given the Eskimos' uselessness in the final frame over the previous four weeks.

Now the focus will be to put together a full four quarters of solid play, and what better way to start then with the league's biggest surprise, the Toronto Argonauts.

Offensive key to the next game: The Toronto d-line is formidable, as is its secondary. There is little for Ricky Ray to exploit, so mixing up his own passing with the skills of running back Arkee Whitlock is crucial to a second straight Edmonton win.

Defensive key to the game: The two best Toronto players all season offensively for the Argos have been rookie Cory Boyd and special teams Chad Owens. Both make Toronto's run game exceptional, so taking both out would aide in an Edmonton victory. It worked for Montreal in Week 5, and so it must for Edmonton if they wish to get back into the playoff picture.

Look ahead: The Esks need to carry the momentum forward and a matchup against Toronto allows for such a scenario to transpire. A road game against league- leading Calgary the following week has derailment written all over it, but you can never count out Ricky Ray, who can be the best in the league when he's on his game. Winning twice and achieving a 3-4 record is the only option for the Eskimos heading into their bye in Week 8.

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Super Bowl XLIII Betting - Super Bowl 2009

Super Bowl 2009, the Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Let’s take a look at the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds and the betting line and figure out where they’ve been and where they are going to go.

MySportsbook.com put up the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds late on Sunday night with the Pittsburgh Steelers favored by 6.5 points and a total betting line at 47.5 points.

Since then, however, the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds have seen a good deal of movement and you’ll want to be on top of where they are likely to move to make sure you get the best line value for the big game.

Since opening, the Super Bowl 2009 betting lines went to Steelers -7 in the span of roughly 3 hours but were quickly bought back down just minutes later to 6.5 again.

After that is took about 5-6 more hours before the betting line went back to -7 where it has sat for a while now and is likely to remain. The opening betting total of 47.5 was bet down right after the line became available and went to 47 within minutes.

Roughly a day later it has been bet even further down to the 46.5 tally it currently is set at.

Roughly 60% of gamblers seem to be on the Cardinals here so the point spread will be bet down and a 7.5 would not last very long at all with many taking the early 6.5 in hopes of finding a potential middle in the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds.

If you like Arizona and see a 7.5, I’d take it as soon as possible because it’s unlikely to last. For Pittsburgh backers, the -7 might be the best you’ll be able to find but a 6.5 is definitely possible close to game time.

Regarding the Super Bowl 2009 betting odds for the total, most tracked gamblers are already on the over and with those who took the under 47.5 already securing a middle on the over 46.5, the only way I see it moving is back up to 47 so if you like the over, I’d recommend betting now.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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